Due to a surge in usage, Starlink has suspended new installations in several African markets, including Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya, to curb network congestion, which might lead to slow speeds and latency. Is Botswana on course to face the same issue as Starlink adoption increases?
Due to the nature of low-earth orbit satellite internet, Starlink can only support a limited number of customers per a certain geographical area.
A common rule of thumb is the "100in300 rule", meaning 100 subscribers can be supported in a 300km2 area. If that number is exceeded, users will start reporting lower speeds and latency issues.
To address this issue, Starlink must constantly launch satellites to keep up with demand. What has likely hastened the issue in the markets where the service has had to be paused in Africa is that a lot of demand has filled up the available network quite fast, especially in urban areas.
In the US, Starlink has had to try explain to users about why their speeds were slowing down.
Starlink satellites provide signal coverage zones on the Earth’s surface, with an estimated diameter per satellite of 25km, coverage of around 400 km2 per satellite, and a bandwidth capacity of 20 Gbps. Theoretically, each satellite will then be able to service 2,000 subscribers at a speed of 10Mbps, with an average demand of 200GB per subscriber per month.
However, since Starlink deploys cellular-type network architecture, it exhibits similar network behaviour to mobile networks and, therefore, is affected by cell loading and cell congestion.
So, will the same issue likely occur for Starlink users in Botswana? It is hard to know because the future uptake of Starlink is unclear. If, for example, usage surges in Gaborone, which is more densely populated relative to the rest of the country, then the issue will pop up. However, the advantage is that Gaborone is not as densely populated as places like Harare, Lagos and Nairobi.
But for people who are using the service in rural areas where density is extremely low, they are unlikely to face this issue. For those in urban areas, the good news is that SpaceX is constantly sending up more satellites into orbit to match demand and prevent network congestion. The question is, how long will it be economically feasible to keep adding more satellites to the constellation?